By OPEN MINDS Circle
The global burden of dementia (a group of conditions including Alzheimerās disease) is projected to triple by 2050. Researchers estimate that the number of cases will rise from 57.4 million cases in 2019 to about 83.2 million in 2030, rising again to 116.0 million by 2040, and to 152.8 million in 2050.
Further estimates show that across countries, the smallest increases in dementia cases by 2050 are projected to occur in high-income Asia Pacific (53% increase) and western Europe (74% increase). The regions estimated to experience the largest increases in dementia cases by 2050 are north Africa and the Middle East, with a 367% rise, and sub-Saharan Africa, with a 357% rise.
In addition, researchers estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019, with a ratio of 1.69 women to men. This pattern is expected to continue to 2050, with an estimated ratio of 1.67 women to men. By 2050, the prevalence of dementia in men globally was forecasted to be 0.5% among those aged 40 to 69 years, 6.5% among those aged 70 to 84 years, and 23.5% among those aged 85 years and older. In women, the global forecast was projected to be 0.6% among those aged 40 to 69 years, 8.5% among those aged 70 to 84 years, and 30.5% among those aged 85 years and older.
|
Projected 2050 Dementia Prevalence By Gender & Age Group | ||
| Age Group | Dementia Prevalence In Men |
Dementia Prevalence In Women |
|
40-69 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
70-84 |
6.5% |
8.5% |
|
85+ |
23.5% |
30.5% |
These findings were presented in āEstimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019,ā by Emma Nichols, Jaimie D Steinmetz, Stein Emil Vollset, Kai Fukutaki, Julian Chalek, and colleagues. The researchers forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to demographic trends and four risk factors for dementia: high blood sugar, obesity, smoking, and low education. Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population aging contributing most to the increases in east Asia.
For more information, contact: Emma Nichols, MPH, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, 3980 15th Avenue Northeast, Population Health Building/Hans Rosling Center, Box #351615, Seattle, Washington 98185; Email: eln1@uw.edu; Website: https://www.healthdata.org/